Workshopping the future trends for scenario building
Dr, Wendy L. Schultz kindly shared her scenario building trends with me. They will be available on the OCLC website, along with her slide deck, after July 14.
The way it worked in the ALA workshop was that groups of five particpants were assigned three of the trends and had to forecast what the trends would mean to libraries in 2036. then we used the It was very wide-ranging, even only lookinf at three of the trends. If you look at the list, you will see many are beginning to impact us now. When you throw in the transformational and strateic questions, it isa verypowerful way to consider future scenarios.
Scenario Building Workshop
Trends
* Era of vigorous & active elders (average life span of 100 years)
* Expectation of Customization of all services and experiences continues to increase.
* Public attitudes about paying for service change – willing to pay
* Folksonomy becomes the norm – everyone is used to participating in the organization of information
* The Home Area Network is the center of all home activities and connects all devices and information that the resident needs
* Artificial Intelligence software is trained rather than written
* NetFlix model becomes the expectation of all infotainment services
* High Definition formats for media allow more picture resolution, increased viewer control, additional data/information and easier storage
* Copyright issues continue to prevent libraries from fully participating in ebook evolution
* RFID prices drop to affordable prices, enabling most libraries to integrate into their ILS systems
* Robots become more integrated into daily life. They are emotionally responsive and enable us to deal more easily with computing/networking. They are used as receptionist and home guides.
* Portable translation devices become the norm, enabling better global communication
* Self-service” moving to self-sufficiency
* Back lash to human machine interaction – groups demand human service
* Seamlessness of information, communication, work, and leisure
* Social networking continues all kinds of groups of people worldwide
* A move to open-source software
* Security, authentication and Digital Rights Management
* Proliferation of elearning that is customized for the learner
* Change in scholarly review and publication of materials
* Expected mass retirement of librarians does not happen, and new librarians cannot find jobs
* Time shifting is the norm – people expect get information and entertainment when and where they want it
* Intelligent agents are prevalent enabling users to engage with simple software to locate and organize any information they seek
* Life long learning changes the university college model of what a student is – seek to build life-long relationships with students
* Fabbing becomes mainstream. People now download patterns for devices and things, and they are replicated by a home fabbing machine. No need to go to the store
* Everyone is a content creator
* Technology continues to shrink in size and price
* Increased memory capacity enables almost everyone to carry the equivalent of 180,000 Libraries of Congress (exabyte)
* Personal coaches become the norm as people transform themselves over and over throughout a long life span
* Information is customized for the user and transmitted to them in public via voice, message, or simple images
* Gaming movement leads to changes in how educational experiences are designed and delivered
* Exclusivity, markets-of-one, extreme customization, “massclusivity”—the more access consumers have to quality the more they want exclusivity. Think brands introducing top-of-the-line products that cost way more than the rest of the line-- Mercedes-Benz, Puma, all first-class planes, iPods covered in diamonds—or super membership cards that allow access/rewards to things most cardholders can’t have
* The “experience economy”, the third place, “being places”: People will expect to be entertained, cosseted, educated and catered to by libraries
* Continuous consumption: All resources and services will run 24/7 on broadband, and on multiple devices. People expect instant information gratification.
* Seamlessness & Merging of public/private time: The barriers between resources and services will disappear. Databases won’t be separate from the library catalog won’t be separate from full-text
* The “internet of things” : RFID (or “arphid” as Bruce Sterling refers to it) will allow for all kinds of things to be tracked and to be searchable. Interlibrary loan will change fundamentally.
* Privacy & Presence: Libraries will have to accommodate a major shift in the boundaries and definition of privacy. People will be able to be always present to one another.
* Disintermediation & Disaggregation: Content has left the container. The notion of “book”, “article” will change as all content is born digital and so can interact with all other content. Human mediators between content and consumer will diminish in quantity and change roles. Micropublishing is a preference and mash-ups the norm.
* Collective documentary – plentiful, diverse, accessible but people are overwhelmed by choice and seek meaning, stories, and autheticity
* Unfunded “liabilities” – healthcare, education, social services…libraries?
* Distributed computing, data
* User generated metadata and taxonomies
* User generated content
Focus Questions
Transformational questions:
* What skills do staff members need to thrive in this scenario?
* What does the organization look like? How many staff? What kind of staff? What are imperative organizational behaviors?
* What services and programs does library provide?
* How is the library budget distributed in this world? (staffing, collections, technology, etc…)
* What is a collection?
* What is literacy?
* What does research look like?
* Is reference still alive? What does it look like?
* Is there a physical space? If so, what does it need to have?
* What is the role of the library in the community?
* What kind of technology do you need?
Strategic questions:
* How can libraries (physical and virtual) be redesigned to provide a seamless experience?
* How can libraries and information service providers enter users’ spaces instead of making them come to our spaces?
* How do we keep the benefits of metadata and classification while making them invisible?
* How can technology be leveraged to serve more people and deliver more services?
* What can be done to demonstrate (and increase) the economic value of libraries?
* How do libraries take advantage of new technologies and new architectures of participation to deliver new or additional services?
* What new opportunities exist for libraries to work together to build more open-source solutions?
* What services are required to support an informed citizenry, to create learning and creative opportunities?
* Given that there is likely to be little new money for asset management of digital material, how will libraries and allied organizations preserve, curate and provide access to digital collections?
* Should the interpersonal aspects of librarianship—service, instruction, collaboration—be retained in a Webby world? How?
* What is the purpose of the library in a networked, distributed environment?
The way it worked in the ALA workshop was that groups of five particpants were assigned three of the trends and had to forecast what the trends would mean to libraries in 2036. then we used the It was very wide-ranging, even only lookinf at three of the trends. If you look at the list, you will see many are beginning to impact us now. When you throw in the transformational and strateic questions, it isa verypowerful way to consider future scenarios.
Scenario Building Workshop
Trends
* Era of vigorous & active elders (average life span of 100 years)
* Expectation of Customization of all services and experiences continues to increase.
* Public attitudes about paying for service change – willing to pay
* Folksonomy becomes the norm – everyone is used to participating in the organization of information
* The Home Area Network is the center of all home activities and connects all devices and information that the resident needs
* Artificial Intelligence software is trained rather than written
* NetFlix model becomes the expectation of all infotainment services
* High Definition formats for media allow more picture resolution, increased viewer control, additional data/information and easier storage
* Copyright issues continue to prevent libraries from fully participating in ebook evolution
* RFID prices drop to affordable prices, enabling most libraries to integrate into their ILS systems
* Robots become more integrated into daily life. They are emotionally responsive and enable us to deal more easily with computing/networking. They are used as receptionist and home guides.
* Portable translation devices become the norm, enabling better global communication
* Self-service” moving to self-sufficiency
* Back lash to human machine interaction – groups demand human service
* Seamlessness of information, communication, work, and leisure
* Social networking continues all kinds of groups of people worldwide
* A move to open-source software
* Security, authentication and Digital Rights Management
* Proliferation of elearning that is customized for the learner
* Change in scholarly review and publication of materials
* Expected mass retirement of librarians does not happen, and new librarians cannot find jobs
* Time shifting is the norm – people expect get information and entertainment when and where they want it
* Intelligent agents are prevalent enabling users to engage with simple software to locate and organize any information they seek
* Life long learning changes the university college model of what a student is – seek to build life-long relationships with students
* Fabbing becomes mainstream. People now download patterns for devices and things, and they are replicated by a home fabbing machine. No need to go to the store
* Everyone is a content creator
* Technology continues to shrink in size and price
* Increased memory capacity enables almost everyone to carry the equivalent of 180,000 Libraries of Congress (exabyte)
* Personal coaches become the norm as people transform themselves over and over throughout a long life span
* Information is customized for the user and transmitted to them in public via voice, message, or simple images
* Gaming movement leads to changes in how educational experiences are designed and delivered
* Exclusivity, markets-of-one, extreme customization, “massclusivity”—the more access consumers have to quality the more they want exclusivity. Think brands introducing top-of-the-line products that cost way more than the rest of the line-- Mercedes-Benz, Puma, all first-class planes, iPods covered in diamonds—or super membership cards that allow access/rewards to things most cardholders can’t have
* The “experience economy”, the third place, “being places”: People will expect to be entertained, cosseted, educated and catered to by libraries
* Continuous consumption: All resources and services will run 24/7 on broadband, and on multiple devices. People expect instant information gratification.
* Seamlessness & Merging of public/private time: The barriers between resources and services will disappear. Databases won’t be separate from the library catalog won’t be separate from full-text
* The “internet of things” : RFID (or “arphid” as Bruce Sterling refers to it) will allow for all kinds of things to be tracked and to be searchable. Interlibrary loan will change fundamentally.
* Privacy & Presence: Libraries will have to accommodate a major shift in the boundaries and definition of privacy. People will be able to be always present to one another.
* Disintermediation & Disaggregation: Content has left the container. The notion of “book”, “article” will change as all content is born digital and so can interact with all other content. Human mediators between content and consumer will diminish in quantity and change roles. Micropublishing is a preference and mash-ups the norm.
* Collective documentary – plentiful, diverse, accessible but people are overwhelmed by choice and seek meaning, stories, and autheticity
* Unfunded “liabilities” – healthcare, education, social services…libraries?
* Distributed computing, data
* User generated metadata and taxonomies
* User generated content
Focus Questions
Transformational questions:
* What skills do staff members need to thrive in this scenario?
* What does the organization look like? How many staff? What kind of staff? What are imperative organizational behaviors?
* What services and programs does library provide?
* How is the library budget distributed in this world? (staffing, collections, technology, etc…)
* What is a collection?
* What is literacy?
* What does research look like?
* Is reference still alive? What does it look like?
* Is there a physical space? If so, what does it need to have?
* What is the role of the library in the community?
* What kind of technology do you need?
Strategic questions:
* How can libraries (physical and virtual) be redesigned to provide a seamless experience?
* How can libraries and information service providers enter users’ spaces instead of making them come to our spaces?
* How do we keep the benefits of metadata and classification while making them invisible?
* How can technology be leveraged to serve more people and deliver more services?
* What can be done to demonstrate (and increase) the economic value of libraries?
* How do libraries take advantage of new technologies and new architectures of participation to deliver new or additional services?
* What new opportunities exist for libraries to work together to build more open-source solutions?
* What services are required to support an informed citizenry, to create learning and creative opportunities?
* Given that there is likely to be little new money for asset management of digital material, how will libraries and allied organizations preserve, curate and provide access to digital collections?
* Should the interpersonal aspects of librarianship—service, instruction, collaboration—be retained in a Webby world? How?
* What is the purpose of the library in a networked, distributed environment?
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