D R A F T: The Long Tail: The Internet, Culture, and the Mega-Store

Monday, 6/26/2006

Chris Anderson, founding editor, Wired, contributor, The Economist, started career: Nature, Science, research at Los Alamos National Laboratory. New book out.

Who needs megahits?

20th Century hit driven; largely regional culture to begin, then radio and TV.

21st Century begins: NSync—3/21/2000. Tech stock bubble burts. NSync sales will be highest numbers ever, forever. Hit machine gearstripped since then. CD sales flat, # of hits fallen by 50% .

Network prime-time audience share vs multichannel TV household penetration. Demand spreads with more access/content.

Top-rated TV shows, news anchors, fragmented demand

Powerlaw curve—1/x –freakily ubiquitous. On logarithmic scale, s/b straight. Trails off when distribution ends—only can have so many movie screens, etc.. Megaplexes require concentrated demand. Need lowest common denominator fare.

Supply & demand hit a bottleneck. Opportunity. Wal*Mart carries 4300 CD titles typically—tiny classical, jazz, world music sections—largest music retailer in US. Hits=25,000 tracks. Rhapsody online music store has over 1,200,000 tracks.

Foresees ½ of market will be hits, ½ niche non-hits

Force 1: Democratization of the tools of production: blogging, mySpace,

Force 2:Democratization of distribution

Force 3: connect supply and demand. Result drives business from hits to niches. Think Google. Ability to manipulate results via filter.

Google: Long tail advertising. PVRblog. Little folks can now reach worldwide markets.

CapitalOne—personalized credit cards—individually tailored

Long tail talent—Google talent search—programmers –winners from all over the globe, who thought there were incredible programmers in Madagascar?

Long tail libations—microbrews—distribution has improved

After the blockbuster—small is the new big, many is the new few.

10 fallacies of “hitism”

1. Everyone wants to be a star.
2. Everyone’s in it for the money. Rise of the nonmonetary economy.
3. The only success is mass success.
4. “Direct to video=bad
5. Self-published=bad. Lulu.
6. Amateur=amateurish. Latin root-love. Wikipedia. Blogs.
7. Low-selling=low-quality
8. If it were good, it would be popular.
9. The economics of the head apply to the whole market.
(microhits and ministers)
10. Focus on strong signals and ignore the weak signals.—weak signals are where the interesting things are happening.

The long tail of books
1. Online retail
2. Used book network. Fastest growing portion of the book market—up 33% last year—increased liquidity. Effect of classic secondary market—how will it effect the primary market? Expansion of “virtual inventory”. Our children will never know the meaning of “out of print”.
3. Print on demand. Smoothes out inefficiencies in market. Sony Ereader. Time may be coming

Libraries Long Tale

1. Interlibrary loans—distributed inventory –virtual access.
Collection overlap between “Google 5” libraries (Harvard, Stanford, Michigan—bigbig libraries)—only 40%. 10% of books=90% of circulation
2. Online dbs. JSTOR—like Google for scholarly works. Libraries offer unique access/abilities
3. Book search. Google Books—inevitable as technology gets cheaper.

Opportunity
4% books in print
70% unknown
20% gov docs

GreaseMonkey plug-in for Firefox browser
Hacks Amazon to show library availability. Shows overdues, RSS for availability.

Five lessons:
1. Don’t confuse limited distribution with shared taste
2. Everyone deviates from the mainstream somewhere
3. One size no longer fits all.
4. The best stuff isn’t necessarily at the top.
5. The mass market is becoming a mass of niches.

Q&A

Will Wal*Mart and Amazon go away?
Hits will not disappear—the lowest common denominator will always sell

What happens w/o net neutrality? AT&T, etc., owns net?
Doesn’t think cable/ telecomm companies have the ability to do what they say. If you regulate the net, it will go horribly wrong. Chokes innovation—look at cell phone market. Thinks there will be maybe two tiers, but consumers have all the power and their choices will regulate the market.

Big business wants to keep their share of the market?
The marketplace will become a consumer paradise.

Trust as a factor?
Brands are a proxy for quality. Measure brand by price premium. Now Sony can only charge a smaller price premium, because we have the info, amateur reviewers, etc. We know all the X are made in the same factory in China.

Implications for long tail on children’s library services?
Home-schooled=long tail. Something out there for every thinking.

Is there any end to the long tail? Rural areas?
Proto-long tail: 1896 Sears Roebuck catalog. Technology is on our side—digital delivery.

Must have dial tone for DSL—monopoly for Verizon. Where does your optimism come from?
Technology is enabling more choices.

New Orleans?
Cities are long tail—more variety, more diversity. Places with distinct culture can market that, and find a broader market.

What about community?
People want to live in cities to engage with other people.

Copyright law as a constraint on distribution?
Biggest problem. WKRP rights would need to clear 30 songs per episode—impossible task. Copyright is a barrier—too complicated to figure out who owns what. We need a new industry/model…

Wow. That was a half-hour talk plus 15 minutes Q&A. Will take me MUCH longer to ponder/digest. And I missed stuff whizzing by. Certainly, the implications for our industry are VAST.

Selling/signing book: The Long Tail : Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More (Hardcover)

Dang, it’s not in our catalog—I may have to do an ILL!

D R A F T: To Your Health: accessible health & medical information

Sunday, 6/25/2006

D R A F T: Sunday, 6/25/2006 To Your Health: accessible health & medical information

Program description: This program will discuss the elements of effective easy-to-read materials for low literacy materials for low literacy adlts. We’ll review the disconnect between health information providers and seekers, the success of “plain language” initiatives and the importance of vocabulary and layout. The session covers published material, how eto write your own material and ways to partner.

Sponsored by ALA Committee on Literacy and the Medical Library Association

Lots of really good freebies left from pre-conference on the same topic: books, cds, handouts

Diane ______ (didn't catch last name--sorry), MS RN, Ohio State U. Medical Ctr.


Diane:

Overview of health literacy issues. As health care has changed to more outpatient and office-based , patients are turning more and more to libraries.

Providers need to give clear, condensed medical advice.

43% of US adults read at a basic level or below.

Only 13% read at a level considered proficient.

People who are already stressed don’t take in information well.

High risk: elderly, minority groups, immigrants, those on welfare, chronic ill—physical or mental.

Language issues. Learning disabilities. ESL. When people stop reading, they lose the ability.

1 in 3 patients leave the office with important questions unanswered.

2 in 5 don’t follow the advice—too difficult or they just disagree.

De-coding words, numbers and forms.

Mehttp://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gifdia onslaught—ads for drugs…

Dyslexia. Develop coping mechanisms.

Advice and consent forms—who reads?

Difference in jargon—wheezing vs. tightness

Poor disease mgmt—more likely t/b hospitalized

Estimates up to $73 billion in costs annually.

Web resources—would you take medical advice from your 16-yo neighbor?

http://www.amafoundation.org/go/health literacy

Anxiety.

Easy-to-read: Use Fry or SMOG scales.

Commercial materials getting better: Crain’s, good government materials

Helping people ask and answer questions is a large part of dealing with health literacy.

“How happy are you with the way you read?”

More is not always better.

Developing materials: translating vs. dumbing down. Simple pictures, simple words and sentences, lots of white space, lots of white space, >12 pt type

Know resources—patient education specialists, consumer libraries at hospitals/health centers

www.healthinfotranslations.com

Q: Issues with giving medical advice as reference service?

Information does not = advice. Distinct line—“you need to ask your doctor that question”

Beth Westcott, National Library of Medicine

System of regional health libraries. 4 free courses. Public librarians can take all four, then can take 12 MLA courses. Get specialization certification for free.

Health reference questions s/n/b shortchanged due to legal concerns

State-school academic medical libraries—there for us—tax supported

www.medlineplus.gov
NLM, no ads, no bad links, up-to-date, free, videos, pictures, English and Spanish, 185 tutorials that will read themselves aloud, procedures, real time

Bibliography for public libraries, addendum in folder

“Go Local”—on medline—places that treat a condition locally

NNLM.gov—click on your state—lots of funding opportunities right now—they just got their 5 year contracts and they need partners!

Dollar General, Pfizer, Verizon, fund health literacy

Askmefree—brochures on how to formulate questions

Really good session—very informative.

After the storm

Many of the advisories and press releases about New Orleans that I read before coming assured me that if I stayed in the French Quarter (where my hotel is) and Central Business District (convention center), I would not see any difference in pre- and post- Katrina. ALA was offering a variety of volunteer activities in the areas most devastated. However, I knew my physical efforts would not be available. So I resigned myself to making a difference with my wallet. I was a bit disappointed, thinking I wouldn’t see anything of Katrina’s effects first-hand.

OK, I guess whoever wrote that was trying to reassure nervous conference goers. That or they were sanity-challenged. The signs of Katrina are absolutely everywhere. We arrived after dusk, so we really couldn’t see much Friday night. I noticed the “taxis” in line at the airport. A lot of them had no indication they were cabs—they looked liked private SUVs and minivans, some rather beat-up looking. My NYC street sense said “gypsy cabs—look out.” There were large signs about the fares to the French Quarter and Conference Center. I had planned to take a shuttle bus. The line was enormous. There was a line for cabs, but it was moving. We decided to see if anyone wanted to share a taxi. We immediately found 2 takers, librarians from New Mexico, so we got in the “taxi” line. When we got to the top of the line, our cab was a van, so we recruited two more passengers. The van had a cracked windshield, which concerned me a little, but not so much as it was on the passenger side.

By the time we got to the hotel, it was full dark. We got to our room, which is very nice and ENORMOUS. Last year, at ALA in Chicago we stayed in the world’s smallest two-person hotel room. I mean, claustrophobics, avoid the Chicago Red Roof Inn Uptown. Seriously. OK, I inspected the premises. Pretty standard. The only thing odd is one of the windows. The glass has shattered. There is another sheet of glass between the room and the shattered glass, so it seems safe. I think maybe it’s some sort of privacy frosting, but I’ve never seen this kind before. It does make me a bit uneasy, but not enough to keep me awake worrying.

When we went out looking for dinner, we discovered that many, many stores and restaurants are boarded up. The few restaurants that were open had long lines. We succeeded finally in finding a place where I won’t have to stand for 45 minutes The French Quarter escaped the worst of the physical devastation, but has been hard hit economically.

In the morning, while awaiting the shuttle bus to the convention center, I notice that at least 30% of the cars I see have cracks in their windshields. On reflection, I am guessing that the number of broken windshields and windows on the Gulf of Mexico far exceeds any possible replacement inventory anywhere. The drive to the Convention Center reveals many more boarded up businesses. It reminds me of the very worst areas of Jersey City and Philadelphia, so my street sense pops up and says “Careful here.”

The convention center, a huge building, is only partially open. Plus the number of staff definitely seems thin. Usually there are all kinds of businesses trying to sell you something at a convention center. This convention center is just trying to offer basic services. There all kinds of greeters and people to help attendees, but nothing like my previous ALA Annual experiences. The day continues to show me an understaffed tourist industry that is trying so hard to make this conference work. The economic impact of the conference is obviously a very big deal. The goal of giving the librarians a good experience seems to have inspired everyone except some of the drunks on Bourbon Street. I feel like a visiting dignitary or something. (Even some of the drunks are helpful, and ask if I am one of “the librarians”.)

Saturday notes

Well, my day one at ALA Annual 2006 is over.

First thing, it was off to the exhibits. Over 3,000 library vendors set up booths in the convention center, and there is really something for everyone. It is mind-boggling. I had preplanned a list of vendors who I wanted to see. So there was an attempt at surgical precision. The preplanning really did pay. ALA had kindly arranged the loan of a wheelchair, which my boyfriend pushed valiantly, as the exhibits floor is the size of three soccer pitches, I am told. The convention center is the size of six soccer pitches.

The wheelchair was quickly renamed "the swag trolley" as vendors vied to give the poor gimp lots of lovely freebies. I tried not to be greedy, but I didn't want to hurt their feelings. We were only half-way through the Graphic Novel Pavillion (yes, Kelly, as much as we could carry) when it was time to go to a session. We shall return!

I attended two good sessions. The first was Workshopping the Future: Libraries in 2010. Actually, we used a forecasting process called Manoa to think about the library in 2036. The trainer, Dr. Wendy Schultz, who was very good, said she would put up her PowerPoint on her web site. She broke us into groups of five to work on scenarios and forecasting. My group came up with an incredible array of possibilities and consequences for libraries in the future. We had a lot of fun, too. The session was hosted by OCLC, and featured beignets and a lovely fruit buffet. Plus I got a very nice OCLC tote bag. Swag!

The second session I attended was Hot Topics in Front-line Reference, hosted by RUSA. Speakers from a variety of mostly academic libraries spoke about using Instant Messaging (IM) and SMS (text messages) to provide reference service. In terms of reference inquiries, most IM sessions are quite short. If a customer has a more complicated query, the librarian may ask them to call by phone or come into the library. There was discussion of Virtual Reference (Ask A Librarian services) vs. IM. The panel mainly concurred that IM software is easier to use in general and familiar to students. Plus it is free and widely supported. An audience member asked about security concerns. A panelist explained that IM can reside behind a library site's portal.

Another audience member questioned how libraries can determine if a user has privileges on their system. Some colleges are not doing IM because of a fear of being flooded with requests from outside their students and staff. Someone from New York Public Library explained that they "threw open their gates" some time ago, and will answer any and all IM requests, from NYC or China. He said that in an era of declining reference statistics, we have to go where our users are, and we should only be so lucky as to have more people using one of our services than we can handle.

There was some discussion of staffing IM reference. A number of the panelists said that they run IM on the reference desk and answer as part of a regular shift. There was a question regarding "who do you help first, the person in front of you or the one on IM?" A panelist answered that an in-person customer would always get priority. He also said that the nature of IM is such that customers don't expect an instant answer--they will pose a question and then hang around a while awaiting an answer. IM lends itself to multi-tasking; in fact, both customer and librarian can be multi-tasking at once.

A representative from an Australian vendor, Altarama Information Systems, explained that they provide a service whereby an incoming IM or SMS reference question is translated into an email to the librarian. The librarian responds by email, which is then translated back to IM or SMS for the customer.

One librarian explained that they are using SMS to allow customers to place requests from their cell phones while they are on the bus on their way to the library.

Trillian software is a fully featured, stand-alone, skinnable chat client that supports AIM, ICQ, MSN, Yahoo Messenger, and IRC. It provides capabilities not possible with original network clients, while supporting standard features such as audio chat, file transfers, group chats, chat rooms, buddy icons, multiple simultaneous connections to the same network, server-side contact importing, typing notification, direct connection (AIM), proxy support, encrypted messaging (AIM/ICQ), SMS support, and privacy settings.
Trillian also allows tabbed multiple conversations, and global away messages, which are very important to IM courtesy.

A panelist asked "why aren't some libraries using IM for reference? Why not? Answers from the audience included institutional culture, staff resistance, and security issues.

The panel ended by asking what Hot Topics they should address at the Midwinter Meeting. Audience members suggested Google Scholar, social networks such as MySpace and Facebook, and "rethinking reference" on a grand scale.

Panelists included Kenley Neufeld, Santa Barbara Community College, Jeanne Welch, UNC, Russell Hall, Penn State. (Sorry, I couldn't get everyone's name and there was no printed list.)

LKNOLA

I came up with the bright idea of doing a tiny seperate, quickie/ugly blog for New Orleans. This will be fully employer paid (OMG--money for meals! I cannot believe. More proof of my incredible luck.)

I do have to provide reports on the sessions I attend, so this will be an easy way for me to organize. It may be intensely boring to those who don't find libraries just fascinating. But I'll try to spice it up with pictures, and tryto give you a little of the flavor, if I have time!

By the way, had crawfish etouffee for dinner last night--fabulous! My first Cajun food. Today, the search for the perfect praline begins.

OK, time to bond with the Big Easy on the Big Muddy!

On the way!

Just getting ready to leave SD. Will so miss the salt air, and the dog. However, very excited to see New Orleans, and to be going to ALA Annual. VERY grateful to MPOW!